The bull argument is still alive. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $180.4 million on March 13, $199.4 million on March 16, and $199.4 million on March 17 before momentum cooled. Citi’s recent note still leaves room for a $165,000 bullish scenario over 12 months, which tells you new highs are absolutely within range if flows re-accelerate and the market snaps back risk-on. 

But the road is not easy. ETF flows then flipped negative, with about -$163.5 million on March 18 and -$90.2 million on March 19. Citi also cut its 12-month base case to $112,000 from $143,000 because U.S. crypto legislation has stalled. On top of that, the Fed just held rates steady, most officials still project only one cut in 2026, and oil/geopolitical stress has been hitting broader risk appetite. 

My take: ATH in three months is still live, but Bitcoin probably needs a savage combo of renewed ETF inflows, calmer macro, and a momentum breakout. Without that, a grind higher is more plausible than an instant face-melting sprint to $125K+. That’s my inference from the current price gap, the choppy ETF tape, and Citi’s updated scenario range.