The Wisdom of bayes:
The bees leave the flower stocks when they are empty, the tiger leaves a forest when there is no more forest- approximate Khmer proverb.
So I think in English thereโs not really a good way to describe this idea. The general idea is about iteration, and alsoโฆ Making decisions or doing things were changing your opinion, like bayes bayserian theory, ๏ฟผ which means that like decisions are not like this finalized thing forever, but rather, to be able to constantly be in this flexible position in which the decisions that youโre always making ,,, is constantly dislike continuum, and alsoโฆ Being able to pivot whenever, also based on random this chance, opportunity, luck, chaos?
Intelligent dancing and leveraging chaos
So bitcoin essentially hitting $120,000 a bitcoin,โฆ Yeah I think all the rules are like officially out the window. Thereโs no putting the genie back into the bottle.
Essentially my insane grand optimism now is that like I guess the whole time I was a genius, at least orโฆ Perhaps my conviction and insight was fully realized?
Being lucky
There might be this mis quoted quote from Seneca, luck is when chance meets opportunity.
Essentially the general idea is that likeโฆ I mean certainly nobody could predict the future with 1000% certain to you, at least in terms of timing. For example I think itโs pretty obvious now that bitcoin is gonna keep going up forever, but how quickly, the rate of adoption, Acceleration speed the velocity, these things are beyond my purview.
Also what kind of impressive I was thinking about itโฆ Technically Iโve been into bitcoin even longer than Michael Saylor. I first bought bitcoin in 2017 when I was only $7000 of bitcoin, putting about $25,000 in my own money into it, which of the time was about 10% of my life savings, following NASSIM Talebโs 90/10% rule –>
Better to put 10% of your life assets into a highly speculative vet, rather than putting 100% of your assets into a โmiddle riskโ, thing.
So first and foremost, I am like forever grateful for Taleb. He also got me into one rep Max lifting, in which I bent reality by lifting 552 kg, 7.6 X my body weight, at around 160 pounds, 72.5 kg body weight.
100% no risk
100% volatility guaranteed, 0% risk guaranteed: my view on bitcoin ๏ฟผ๏ฟผ
So if I could give you a crystal ball prediction on something, with 100% clarity, the simple thought is that with 100% certainty, with 100% volatilityโฆ Bitcoin is gonna keep going up in this jagged ladder, but the reason why it is your risk is that it is never going to zero.
if it is not going to zero, it is going to $55 million a coin.
My current bullish prediction is I think that bitcoin is poised to hit at least 55 million a bitcoin, if not 100 million a bitcoin.
If you do the math, that then easily makes STRATEGY, MSTR the most valuable company possibly on the planet? Because if you own a cyber monopoly on perfect money, thatโs like youโre playing cyber Monopoly at a grand scale. Itโs like Rockerfeller on steroids. ๏ฟผ
So why arenโt more people doing it?
I think honestlyโฆ Thereโs kind of like a knowledge gap. A, people just donโt know about it, B) theyโre getting their information from a misguided source, or C) they just donโt have the courage conviction or clarity to understand it.
For example, I think the mind must be humble, and also must have humility to accept the fact that you might be wrong. Or that you must at least adjust your worldview thinking, based on new information that you have been given.
For example if you are somebody who thinks that bitcoin is a scam, and then one day magically bitcoin hits 1 million a bitcoinโฆ Do you still think it is a scam? And that like 99.9% of the world is like insane? Then if thatโs the case you might be the crazy one.
Stay foolish, stay crazy
So in American English, we like to say that notion crazy a lot. Crazy Rich Asians, Kanye West is crazy blah blah blah. But, what does that really mean?
I think typically when people say about it, they mean to say that they lack some sort of grounding to reality. But Facebook is not grounded to reality nor is TikTok and nor is Fiat currency one and zeros in a cyber machine, printing fake cyber cash, a.k.a. the US dollar into perpetuity. Nor is Google, etc.
Or let me give you an exampleโฆ Is the Apple App Store real? Most people would agree, but can you point it in a reality, physical space? No.
Then is Amazon web service is real? Well you could probably point to the servers, and electricity is consuming, you might call it real. But then bitcoin is like almost exactly the same thing, but better because it is actually truly decentralized.
Now what?
OK now that youโre like rolling in millions of dollars, now what?
The first still obvious thing is like a good night sleep. All the wealth all the profits all the riches all the wellness in the world and worth it if you cannot sleep 9 to 12 hours a night.
Alsoโฆ I still firmly believe thisโฆ The importance and focus on nutrition? The simple idea is like still being able to eat insanely well, beef ribs, pork jowl cheek, bone marrow, Lam, organ meats, etc. Anything extremely nutrient dense.
Physical physiological
One of the funniest things about currently living here in ๏ฟผPhnom Penh is that you see Rolls-Royceโs and Lamborghinis like candy. On average I see like at least five Rolls-Royce is a day, 2 1/2 Lamborghinis, and actually the most popular car is probably the LexusLX SUV–>.
The consequence, funny enough the general idea is once something becomes very common, your desire and appetite for it goes down. For example, if you see Rolls-Royce is every single day and you look very very closely, they are actually not that impressive. Also a Lamborghini SUV which is just like a Volkswagen Toureg on steroids,,, is also not very impressive. But I do think is impressive still is like thereโs one dude with a yellow Lamborghini Aventador, I mean thatโs still looks cool but stillโฆ The clarity is that currently in BKK1, which is like the fifth Avenue of phnom Penh,,, I could like literally walk anywhere and everywhere, in about 5 to 10 minutes. To the gym, to the mall, to the meat store, to the apartment etc.
As a consequence, this is like the ultimate liberating thing because my desire for any vehicle goes to like -0. Even my current favorite form of transit is the traditional Ramorque, which is essentially a motorbike attached to a trailer, and the trailer is like really big and elevated, you get this phenomenal view of the streets the city, and maximum airflow.
Also an ongoing theoryโฆ Something about fresh air clean air, open air is 1000 times more invigorating than air-conditioning?
There is kind of this fringe science that measures like oxygen molecules in the air, and apparently if you have like fresh air outside, thereโs like 1000 times more oxygen in the air and if youโre indoors, with the air conditioning on?
Which kind of checks out because i found this weird thing that whenever i go to the mall or when iโm stuck in doors all dayโฆ with no windows openโฆ it feels like an energy vampireโฆ i suddenly lose like 1000 times my strength and i want to take a nap and i get really sleepy and exhausted?
๏ฟผ which makes me think and wonderโฆ The only thing I hate on the planet is feeling tired or exhausted? ๏ฟผ